On Iran-Israel war; commentaries

 June 22, 2025

What have I missed to see behind the Israel's attack on Iran. 

My gross mistake and shortcoming in analysing the Israel Iran war has been to focus on the action itself. Pulling myself back and looking at the big picture, I realized that the genocide in Gaza has been going on with higher intensity. The continuing genocide in Gaza almost forgotten or at least the attention to what is going on in Gaza has been distracted from the attention of people, the news and commentaries about genocide disappeared from the Mainstream media pages and broadcasts. All the focus has been directed to Israel Iran war and the people have been directed to their TV or Phone screens  to follow the "scores" of Iran-Israel as if there is a world soccer championship is going on. 

We should admit that US and especially Israel is unmatched in strategy and tactics, propaganda and manipulation of people and their attentions. 

The isolation of Israel and US from the large section of the world population had reached its peak due to the genocide that was being carried out in Gaza. Israel especially had gained the hate and disgust of most of the people in the world. One third of the countries of the world enacted laws banning visas to Israelis, and even to those who visited Israel. The other one third made it very difficult for Israelis to get visa. Some other countries started arresting the returning or visiting Israelis Israeli's for war crimes. Although the economic life of Israel had already come to a stand still due to military recruitments, stopping trade with Israel by so many countries added additional blow to Israel's economy. Fighting against a militant group with no air defense, no heavy military equipment for two years in Gaza did not bring about a positive result for its "mythical army". The genocidal war of Israel against the people of Palestine caused irreparable damage to Israel in political, military, and economic arena  in world scale. 

They had to come up with a tactical solution for damage-repair and distract the attention from the genocide going on in Gaza and speed up and finalize the genocide while all the attention of world is focused on something else. What else could have been better distraction than a country who has a reactionary government and disliked by almost everyone. A country, in most cases due to west's decades long disinformation, cheap propaganda, falsifications, and false narratives a negative opinion had already been manufactured. Their narrative on Iran, especially on "women issue" was so strongly accepted to be true by the world population, people had closed their eyes and ears to the facts and positive developments in Iran.  So, Iran for Israel was the best choice to repair their damaged reputation, to look "progressive", and distract the attention from Gaza.

In complete agreement, coordination, and cooperation with the US, the attack to Iran was planned as the "negotiations" between Iran and US was going on. As an element of surprise the military attack was planned to be carried out before the scheduled negotiation. 

Looking back now, the fundamental purpose of the attack was the distraction of attention from Gaza and damage-repair. That purpose was in line with the US's purpose of regime change in Iran and implant its own government to turn Iran in to a base of leverage against US and China. This way US would be able to control the oil of Iran, pressure China economically, (especially for the rare earth minerals it desperately needs) , build military basis in Iran through which US can extend its powers and influence on Caucasus- Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and beyond- and thus create new "Ukraine " fronts in this region.

They were expecting a quick collapse of Iran. If not, activate its puppets within and around Iran for an uprising  through which they could achieve a government change. 

However, due to their supremacist delusions  they have underestimated Iran  to the degree that their own “myths” shattered one more time. Israel's "iron drome" turned out to be an exaggerated (as  in everything else) myth. Despite all the psychological warfare false narratives, the fact is that Israel is losing this war. Now , after all Trumps self pompous rhetoric and threats, threats that has gone as far as using nuclear bomb, the US is in an impasse and cornered. 

This development has been another confirmation that US is unmatched in "soft power" strategy and tactics, but its "hard power" is diminished substantially.

As far as the "regime change" is concerned, it is most likely that a "regime change" will not be in Iran, but in order to survive, it will be a "regime change" in Israel. 
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June 20 Commentary

Preparation for the US attack in Iran and Psychological warfare for an uprising, and decapitation of the Iranian leader in order to achieve a "regime change".

1- How true is the narrative " Israel has gained complete air dominance over Iranian airspace"?

Even some "objective" commentators are falling in to the trap of Israeli psychological warfare,  and lowering themselves by making simplistic reasoning like; "if Iran shot down Israel planes then Israel have air dominance, if they don't have  air dominance than the claims that Iran shot down Israeli planes are false". They never consider the possibility that it is the drones that penetrating deep in to Iranian air space, and the war planes are occasionally penetrating with a very limited range through the western border.

In reality we do not have concrete evidence for either claims. We can only make logical deductions based on the available data. One important indication, however, is that if Israel had the complete air dominance over Iranian airspace, if we know Israel, Iran's cities would have already been flattened like Gaza . These are the tactics of psychological warfare with the use of media.

Psychological warfare is designed to influence the emotions, motives, and behavior of targeted population in particular and world population in general which aims at manipulating perceptions and overwhelm the alternative information flows . It is disinformation for manipulation and persuasion servicing their aims, in this case; it is to  promote uprising and regime change in Iran.

Most of the narratives coming from media and government officials are largely a part of psychological warfare. There are ways of making sound assessments by critically thinking and comparing the available data, especially from the independent and alternative sources. Based on the available data, contrary to Western media narrative, there is no evidence that Israel controlling the air space of Iran.

2-  How serious are Trump's statements on killing Iranian leader, giving ultimatum, calling for capitulation of Iran, and insinuating  the use of tactical nuclear weapon otherwise.

I don't take any statement coming from Trump seriously. These are a part of his bluffs he loves to make very often on any issue. However, if we consider the fact that Israel is bound to lose this war; at least for the reason that it will soon run out of both offensive and defensive missiles, and its maintenance hungry planes will gradually decrease for offensive purposes, It is highly likely that US will increase its support. In addition to above outlined facts one should consider the non-functioning, collapsing economy of Israel and mass migrating despite the ban on leaving the country.

I had stated in my April 4 dated article; " It is the bluff at the highest degree, in case of which is called (I am sure it will be called), the war will be inevitable unless the US is ready to admit another humiliation by not attacking Iran.

It shows that US is determined to wage a war against Iran." 

However, the extend of its war against Iran, especially when all the high expectations of "Israel could blow heavy damage to Iran is collapsed and will make easy for the US to finish it up", is questionable. 

3- The purpose of US involvement is for the destruction of Nuclear facilities or a regime change through uprising.

I don’t claim to be a military expert, however reading and  listening the military experts and scientists who are familiar with nuclear bunkers, we can easily discard that purpose. We can come to the conclusion that "destroying Iran's nuclear facilities" is a tactic of  distraction from the main purpose.

One of the top scientist in this subject Professor Ted Postol argues that it is impossible. Most of all the military experts says that US has to use B-2 bombers for this purpose in order to carry those bombs. However, they add, those bombers cannot be used by themselves, it has to be escorted by a hundred aircraft to protect it. If we consider what Professor Postol and military experts point that "in order to be affective and achieve its goal, the nuclear facility bunker has to be bombed 20-30 times, and the risks involved  for all the planes, this makes the declared main purpose  less believable.

4- Recently they started giving some clues on the plans of  "uprising" in Iran. I found it strange that they are expecting and promoting an uprising in Azari regions of Iran. Although I am aware of "Azari socialist xx" named parti and/or organization which actually is run by Kurdish Nationalist (not plural, one man), there must be something that US-Israel knows that we are not aware of.  I personally find an Azari uprising highly unlikely . I am not considering Baluchis and Jihadists as a threat due to their insignificant powers in Iran. That may change if Iran starts losing.

US- West, with their self-centered, superiority state of mind, never considers the history and cultures of the countries especially that of Asia they try to subjugate and/or invade. Under delusional expectations, some of their inconsiderate actions unite the  entire people rather than divide them.  They have been, so far ,successful in Myanmar because of their half a century long penetrations, manipulations,  brainwashing and the "buying" power of dollar in a country where the average monthly salary is $64 . Iran is not Myanmar, or Iraq, or Libya.

The only alternative power for US-West to use as proxy for an uprising and chaos in Iran is the Kurdish organizations with which they are very familiar. So far, other than some statements and provocative videos and pictures I have not seen any strong indication of that possibility- without denying that it is possible, but probably contingent on the negative developments in Iran. Otherwise that would be a suicidal act at the expense of Kurdish people in the region. We will wait and see for this alternative.

5- As I have noted numerous times previously, direct involvement of US in large scale and in long term would be suicidal not only militarily but economically and politically.  US-Israel and the West are very well aware of the Russia, China, North Korea (and now Pakistan) factor in this conflict. As Ukraine has been a defeat for them in every aspect, such a long term direct involvement, will probably bring about same results for them.

6- Then, what? It is a common practice of US and especially of Trump to declare a "victory" for himself from any event,  even  they were not involved. (Pakistan India conflict for example he claimed he was the one achieved peace between them)  This, in my opinion will be the same. Trump will declare a victory from the defeat. If they cannot achieve their goals in a very short period of time, US will not continue its direct involvement, a peace agreement will be achieved and Trump will declare a "victory."

This is the high likely possible conclusion if they cannot achieve their goals in a short period of time. And that "achievement" is highly unlikely because Neither Russia nor China can afford that. And a proxy war against the coalition of Russia-China-North Korea (and  Pakistan ) would be a losing war. Unlike the narratives based on fantasy and wishful thinking, Iran easily can become an existential question for Russia through Caucuses. That automatically will bring China in the equation due to indirect existential question. In addition, China invested tremendously in Iran, buys %80 of Iran's oil. 

7- On the possible use of Nuclear bomb.

When people speak of World War 3, the first thing that comes to their mind is a "nuclear war". I personally do not believe in the likelihood of a nuclear war between the superpowers. As I have noted in my articles, I believe that in the new era, wars will be "proxy-wars" with the participation of superpower, in a way with the plausible deniability of participation. With the application of conventional war, no super power is capable of defeating one another to a degree that will bring about the question of "existential" threat. Existential threat is the only trigger for a nuclear exchange between the superpowers. Unlike the dominant perspective that the "presidents" decide the use of nuclear weapon, it is the International Finance capital (or financial oligarchy- whatever you name it)via their permanent, non-elected bureaucrats and think than groups who makes that final decision based on the calculations of profit- loss ratio. In all cases, the benefits always have to overweigh the loss. Finance capital does not have any interest in a nuclear war that will destroy the world. 

Coming back to Iran-Israel war, the same condition of existential question applies for the use of nuclear weapon. In this case, Israel is losing and will lose the war regardless of the direct involvement of US. Israel's future was bleak even before the attack to Iran. When a racist, supremacist, genocidal country is concerned, the use of nuclear weapon becomes likely if and when their very existence is in question. In reality, Israel's long term existence has been under question after the Gaza genocide.

So, will Israel use nuclear bomb against Iran? That is a million dollar question for all the experts. However, if US directly involves, that possibility diminishes because it will implicate US for the use of nuclear weapon. It is more likely without the direct participation of US, for it will have a plausible deniability on the part of US.

Will a nuclear attack prevent the approaching end of Israel?

Iran is a huge country with so many high mountains. Even if Israel succeeds in using all its nuclear arsenal (which is highly unlikely), Iran will still be able to unleash all his missile arsenal from the land and sea destroying all his population concentrated among three cities. 

Considering all these I think the use of nuclear weapon is highly unlikely.

June 18 commentary

Questions and answers on Iran US-Israel war.

Based on the available data, concrete conditions, and situation in US-West wars in Europe front and Middle East front in particular and world in general these are my brief analysis. They may or may not be correct, time will confirm or disprove it either way. I will line up the questions and answers based on their dialectical connections. The latest numbered ones will be influenced and/or determined by the first ones.

1-Is US capable of defeating Iran; NO

The answer really depends on what one understands from the definition of defeat. US currently does not have the means and manpower to defeat Iran. 

2- Will Russia and China directly involved in the war, if US directly involves; NO

Russia and China (North Korea) will not directly involve but will increase their, technical, material, and financial (trade) supports in order to make sure that Iran is not defeated, anti-US and anti-Israel Iranian government remains in power.

3- Is Israel winning the war, or can it win the war against Iran; NO

Israel is losing the war. The war is a long distance war. Israel is using warplanes each one of which has to be rested after each flight for a day maintenance. This maintenance and flight is extremely costly for Israel, economy of whom is already in shambles. 

Israel using inception missiles, as I see from the videos, more than the necessary use of two for per incoming drones, missiles. That means the inventory of Israel's expensive missiles depleting quickly. According to the experts, only the first day defense cost them $ 1.3 billion dollars. 

Iran, however has large inventory of missiles without any need of help from Russia or China- NK already offered help.

4- How it is affecting Ukraine; Terribly

Interception missiles scheduled for Ukraine is being sent to Israel to replenish their wasteful use of its inventory. That is why Ukraine has no serious control over its airspace. Latest Russian nonstop daily air attacks destroying Ukraine's military assets.

5- Why US is not supplying both Ukraine and Israel ;

because as most US military experts points out, the inventory of US depleted to a critical level. US does not have enough to share with anyone , other than of course to Israel. US and West combined cannot produce enough missiles (both offensive and defensive) to satisfy the needs of one, never mind of both countries.

Russia alone producing more weapons and ammunition in three months than what the entire , combined US -West produces in a year . I am not even considering the production and inventory of China and North Korea.

6- Will US directly involve in Israel- Iran war; I doubt it but it is possible.

US is already supporting Israel in every aspects including with their Aircrafts, interception, guides, and missiles. I cannot see how much difference it will make as long as the war will remain to be a long distance war through the use of war planes and missiles. It may extend the destruction of Israel, it will harm Iran but it will not defeat Iran. 

Flying from Diego Garcia and bombing Iran, and its nuclear underground facilities is not only a risky endeavor but according to scientist, Professor Postol of MIT, US has to bomb each facility 20-30 times with its Bunker Busters to penetrate the underground facilities. Considering, by that time Iran's air defense would be updated with the help of Russia and China, flying over Iran would be highly risky and loss of aircrafts highly likely. 

Using Aircraft Carriers? In this technological era, aircraft carriers are sitting ducks for the missiles to shoot and destroy. Iran has some sophisticated anti-ship missiles. So, bringing the old aircraft carrier Nimitz from South China Sea closer to Iran, in my opinion is a part of the US bluff. In worse case, (I doubt it but) it will be used as a trip-wire like Pearl-Harbor. 

There are so many implications of US direct involvement to speak of. Such an action will put all US soldiers and assets in Middle East in deadly risk because they are in short distance of Iran's missiles. These definitely will be primary targets of Iran. 

Closing the Strait of Hormuz through which it makes up more than one-quarter of total global seaborne traded oil would devastate the world economy, including US. 

7- Will there be a trip-wire for the use of tactical nuclear weapon against Iran?

The US military bases and soldiers in Middle East, Nimitz aircraft carrier may be considered as trip-wires. However, Iran is not a small island far from the lands. Iran neighbors to Pakistan and not too far from Russia and China which may be affected by the nuclear bomb and may be considered as a nuclear attack on them. That is a high cost gamble for both Israel and US in so many aspects to mention of.

8- What is US-Israel option to change the Government in Iran; same historical tactic as always. 

US -Israel cannot go through Iraq and try a land invasion of Iran. So, as the only option, they will look for proxies to use in and around Iran to instigate civil war in Iran. Considering the fact that all of the US bases have been closed in countries east of Iran and they do not have any considerable influence in any of them, the only entrance point to Iran could be from the west; Iraq and Turkiye. This may be an explanation of why Israel is bombing the west of Iran and border. I can guarantee that if they are planning, they will use their creature ISIS and all the off shoots of it. Reading the statements of Kurdish parties from Iran, if I am not mistaken, they seem to be keen for this task. I have stressed in my various articles that possibility and gross mistake of setting the path for the destruction of their own people. That tendency may change as Iran remains steadfast. I believe Iran is already considering this possibility and taking counter measurements. 

We will all wait and see

June 14 Commentary

Israel's attack on Iran, a manifestation of declaring war, and Iran's retaliation. 

Israel's Home Front Command has reportedly imposed a media blackout- Government  imposed censorship, ordering citizens not to publish pictures or videos of the sites targeted by Iranian

That by itself is an indication that Iran's retaliation has been extremely damaging. The only available videos are from the "live" broadcasts and instant videos uploaded earlier. One can easily see from these live videos is that Israel could not intercept most of the missiles and their landing striking heavy damage. According to various Israeli media reports, in the latest wave (there were 3 waves of attack so far) , missiles impacted areas in Tel Aviv, occupied Jerusalem al-Quds, Lake Tiberias, Haifa, Beersheba and other places. The third wave seems to be more affective and destructive. That may be the Iran's tactic to deplete and overcome Israel's air defence stock with first two wave of attacks.

It is expected that they will deny any loss as they are denying the downing of one of their planes and a drone which tried to penetrate inside Iran.

We will not know the magnitude of attack and damage for some time.

However, if Iran's retaliation was not at a level of "deterrence, did not damage and disable any offensive and defensive capabilities of Israel, Israel will continue its attacks. If they both keep the attacks limited, especially Iran does so, this "declared" war will continue till US is drawn in to it directly.  For now, at least in appearance this is a war between Iran and Israel. Israel has been trying to draw US in for long time. If US directly involves in the war, that is another question because that would be an escalation drawing other regional actors to war.

It should be noted that this war is not merely a war against Iran, but a part of the war against China and Russia. Contrary to wishful thinking of pro-neo-cons, Neither Russia nor China can remain silent if US directly involves in the war against Iran. They will not involve directly, but they will give their full support to Iran indirectly.

As Iran's tactic to attack in three wave in order to deplete and overcome Israel's defense, destroy its defense and offense capabilities, It is also US's expectation that Iran depletes its missiles against Israel by the time it directly involves in the war. With their fantasy they do not believe that neither Russia nor China will supply Iran what it needs. Trumps flirting attempts with North Korea well may partially be related to that since NK has millions of missiles to support Iran. 

It is confirmed that Iraqi pro Iran groups started sending the drones to Israel before the first wave of Iran's attack.

Despite all the subjective rhetoric Israel will be loser militarily, politically, and economically in any case. While Israel has been trying to depopulate Palestine, Israel itself will be depopulated in a multiple magnitude. The latest news stated that around 500,000 Israeli already left the country. After these waves of attacks, it is expected that the number will increase significantly.

June 13 commentary

Israel attacks Iran;

Israel used Syria and Iraq airspace to attack Iran with missiles and drones from a distance.

Will this be a turning point in world history, especially in regard to West Asia- Middle East?

We will wait and see, but we will never hear the facts on the developments from and watch on Western Media and its extension, puppet media. It will take some time to see the developments and to get the facts.

Oil prices already jumped % 8 , Gold prices increased  %1 and seems to be increasing daily, all of which will translate in to higher costs for the average consumers, and more dissatisfaction among the masses.

Stock market which is the main reflection of economy in "finance capital dominant countries where the "profits" are not invested in industry but in re-buying stock market , dropped  %1.5 + in major stocks. That again translates into continuing de-industrialization of these countries and more aggressiveness of declining  international finance capital.

Lets wait and see in coming days and weeks in order to make a concrete analysis and a forecast based on the magnitude of Iran's retaliation (s).

In the mean time lets consider these facts;

1- We have no idea, no data on how many missiles hit their targets.

2- Israeli planes did not bomb after penetrating in to Iran's air space, they used missiles from the airspace of Iraq from a safe distance from the Iranian borders.

3- There were additional drone attacks from within Iran through their assets and proxies - it is said that those cost the lives of Iranian military and scientific leaders and their families.

4- we have no idea how, when and at what magnitude the Iranian retaliation will be. That will change all the dynamics.

5- Israel claims to keep on its attacks for a couple weeks. That will be contingent on the affects of the retaliation of Iran.

6- Iran is not Syria, it is not only  a BRICKS member, but also neighbor to China and Russia. It will be delusional to believe that they both will be silent on the face of continuing attacks. Some claim that they will wait and see if the Iran's government will collapse. That is a delusional comment too. Russia and China cannot afford to let Iran's collapse and its fracturing. Although I strongly believe that they will not collapse.

7- Israel's military cannot survive without the direct support of US

8-Israel's economy is in collapse cannot survive without the US support...Ironically, US military is degrading and its military stocks depleted to a critical level. Similarly, US economy is heading towards recession..  How long that support can last -if Iran continues to retaliate- is questionable.

We have to wait and see the retaliation of Iran. The magnitude of  which may not only be the  beginning of the end of Israel but of Jordan with a %80 Palestinian population. It will not happen soon but it will be an inevitable consequences if Iran's retaliation is devastating.

While Israel killed 100s of thousands Palestinians in Gaza, yet Israel lost 100s of thousands of people migrating to other countries. Israel is having problem in recruiting for military personnel.

Depending on the developments vis a vis Iran, we do not have any idea what the attitude of other groups and countries will be.

It is easy to jump to a conclusion with one attack and the consequences of one battle, but wars contain so many battles to reach a victory. Winning  a battle does not mean winning a war.

Erdogan A
June 13-June 22 2025